Optimal Decision Times in Economics

Statistical Surveillance

By David Brock

December 2004

Almqvist & Wiksell

ISBN: 9122021019

140 pages, Illustrated, 6 ¾" x 9 ½"

$72.50 Paper Original

This is a Ph.D. dissertation. Statistical surveillance is used to repeatedly evaluate the amount of information contained in observations which are achieved continuously. This makes it possible to quickly and safely detect changes in the way economic and financial time series evolve through time. Thus, the optimal time for decisions can be determined. The thesis treats systems for early warnings of turns in economic processes. In papers I & II it is demonstrated how such systems can be used to predict the turning points of the general business cycle, by detecting turns in leading indicators. In papers III & IV some strategies for timely transactions in the financial market are analyzed by means of the theory of statistical surveillance.

Economics; Statistics

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